Rare Metals Conundrum

Cars. They can convey status. They can be political statements. And of course cars are required in most of America for us to get our groceries, run errands, get our kids to school. Many of us would like to invest in public transportation, micro-mobility, and other car-less solutions, but the fact of the matter is that personal vehicles are here to stay for the foreseeable future. California, the state that is not just a trendsetter but a kingmaker in terms of emission policy, will phase out new internal combustion engine vehicle production by 2035. So we can anticipate a decade long increase in demand for zero emissions vehicles. But critics and concerned skeptics can point to shortages in rare earth metals, as well as their increasing expense and overseas origins as a stumbling block towards seamless execution. Production of these vehicles themselves won’t be easy. Consumers bought over 370,000 electric vehicles in the first six months of 2022 (per Kelly Blue Book), so I’d like to present a few points of concern, and some pivots, taking into account rare earth metals

• Electric Vehicles (EVs), which rely fully on a battery, require a battery that can be up to ten times larger than that of a Plug-in Hybrid Electric vehicle. With that battery size there is a huge increase in copper, lithium, and other metals. This chart shows the difference between a standard vehicle (internal combusions engine, or ICE): https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/minerals-used-in-electric-cars-compared-to-conventional-cars. So you have that *capability* of driving up to 400 miles, and have purchased a battery filled with metals to provide it. So, if we operate on the premise that we may not be able to mine enough of the metals needed to meet demand, it seems appropriate to consider a full EV (and its unused capacity) a waste of resources in the hand of someone who has a small daily commute. Enter…

• The Plug-in Hybrid EV (PHEV). Just a few months ago when thinking about a new vehicle I was loathe to consider anything that involved gasoline. If our future will be without gas stations, why not be on the leading edge and get a full EV? For one thing, I was concerned about a long road trip, and concerns over where charging stations might be. I’ve moved past this, but I suspect most Americans haven’t (although I’d urge people to really consider how often they really go on 400 mile drives). I also battled a feeling that a PHEV, and it’s need for gasoline at times, is a concession to a vehicular past that is becoming increasingly outdated. This might speak to the status and signaling that car choices create. Cars will show your priorities and preferences, with or without bumper stickers, and I don’t think identity can  be ignored as we chart our transportation course.

• Ultimately, though, I feel a strong pull towards a Plug-in Hybrid because of its more moderate battery size. So the upshot here isn’t that Americans should avoid EVs. But they should think about their commutes. Do you *need* that extra range? There is a price (not just the MSRP) to gobbling up a larger share of copper, magnesium, and lithium. If there is a shortage and car makers can’t electrify the fleet of delivery and transportation vehicles that DO drive 300 miles every day… is that excess capacity under your hood doing more harm than good?

• Make no mistake – electrification (of buildings as well) is essential to meeting our climate goals. The course our society charts is going to be somewhat haphazard. No serious thinker believes that every decision will be correct, but there are some agreed upon facts. A drive, in its best form, will be an electric drive. If 97% of your drives are electric, even the most militant environmentalist will not complain. A smart and measured decision about the degree of battery you need could preserve metals and materials for the high mileage vehicles. Our energy transition will require sacrifices – a smaller battery seems like a simple and painless one to make.